June temperatures smash records before El Niño’s anticipated heat impact, early data reveals
June’s global temperatures surge to unprecedented levels, signaling a foreboding indication of the climate crisis as an approaching El Nino threatens to propel 2023 into the history books as the hottest year on record.
Preliminary data for June reveals an alarming trend, with average global temperatures exceeding those previously recorded for the same month dating back to 1979 by nearly 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Although the month is not yet complete, climate experts assert that this trend aligns with a growing pattern of intensifying global warming, potentially surpassing the record-breaking year of 2016.
The ongoing effects of climate change, primarily driven by the combustion of fossil fuels, are expected to receive an additional surge of heat from the imminent El Nino. This cyclical natural phenomenon causes sections of the Pacific Ocean to warm, triggering a global temperature spike.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño conditions have emerged and are expected to gradually strengthen until early next year. Climate scientist Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania highlighted that this natural event typically adds between 0.1°C to 0.2°C (0.18°F to 0.36°F) to the global temperature, exacerbating the impact of human-caused warming.
Mann stated that the current global surface temperature anomaly is at or near record levels, strongly indicating that 2023 will almost certainly be the warmest year ever recorded. He emphasized that this pattern is likely to persist for future El Niño years as long as we continue to contribute to global warming through fossil fuel combustion and carbon emissions.
Finnish meteorologist Mika Rantanen described the ongoing heat surge this month as “extraordinary” and expressed a high level of certainty that it will result in a June temperature record.
Throughout this year, numerous regions, including Puerto Rico, Siberia, Spain, and Canada, have already experienced severe and record-breaking heatwaves. The scorching temperatures in Canada even led to massive wildfires that produced toxic smoke, affecting cities such as New York City and Washington.
According to the latest update from Noaa, May 2023 marked the world’s third warmest May in a 174-year temperature record. Notably, both North America and South America experienced their hottest May ever recorded.
While Noaa remains cautious about the possibility of setting an annual heat record in 2023, estimating the odds at approximately 12%, they do predict with high confidence that this year will rank among the top 10 warmest and very likely within the top five.
In May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning stating that global temperatures are expected to surge significantly over the next five years. This rise will be fueled by both El Niño and ongoing emissions, making it highly likely that a new record for the hottest year will be achieved during this period.
There is a significant likelihood that the average global temperature will surpass the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold beyond pre-industrial levels. This threshold, agreed upon by governments, signifies a critical point at which the severity of heatwaves, droughts, floods, and other climate-related impacts escalates significantly.
While the land experiences rising temperatures, an even more noteworthy phenomenon is unfolding in the oceans. Noaa has confirmed that May marked a second consecutive month of record-breaking high ocean surface temperatures. The excessive heat in the oceans, which encompass 70% of the Earth’s surface, not only affects overall global temperatures but also has profound effects on marine life, including the disruption of fish populations, coral bleaching, and coastal sea level rise.
Ellen Bartow-Gillies, a climate scientist at Noaa, expressed concern over the intensifying oceanic warming in conjunction with the expected strengthening of El Niño. She emphasized that this situation is alarming and will undoubtedly impact the rest of the world.
According to Bartow-Gillies, Noaa has not yet processed temperature data for June, but early indications suggest that the elevated heat will persist throughout the month. However, the influence of El Niño is not expected to become significant until later in the year. She stated that the year has already commenced with relatively high temperatures, which, while not unprecedented, could further increase due to the impact of El Niño.
Irrespective of whether 2023 ultimately becomes the hottest year on record, scientists emphasize that the escalating impacts of the climate crisis are unmistakably clear and will continue unabated until there is a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Natalie Mahowald, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University, warns that without more significant cuts in emissions, the changes observed so far are merely the beginning of the detrimental impacts that can be anticipated. The extreme events witnessed this year should serve as a stark warning.
