The Hamas onslaught in southern Israel on Saturday was not only deeply shocking and horrifying but also profoundly consequential. It constituted the most lethal attack in decades, involving thousands of rockets fired by militants and multi-pronged assaults from land, sea, and air. Particularly distressing was the deliberate targeting of civilians, with fighters taking numerous Israelis, including elderly women and young children, as many as 100 of them, hostage. At the time of writing, the death toll among Israelis had risen to at least 600, with over 2,000 individuals injured.
The means by which Hamas orchestrated this attack remain unclear. However, what is apparent is that this assault has brought additional catastrophe to Gaza. By Sunday afternoon, Israeli countermeasures had claimed the lives of 370 Palestinians and left over 2,000 wounded. The possibility of a ground invasion looms larger. Benjamin Netanyahu, no longer the image of “Mr. Security,” is now speaking of a “long and arduous war” aimed at reducing the hiding places of Hamas to rubble. He instructed Palestinians to “leave those areas now,” fully aware that in this tiny, densely populated territory, there is nowhere for them to seek refuge. As always, civilians bear the brunt of such actions.
This represents an exceptional lapse in military and security operations, particularly considering Israel’s renowned proficiency in surveillance technologies and its extensive human intelligence networks. Not only did it fail to anticipate the assault, but desperate civilians had to wait for hours for the arrival of the army. This echoes a notorious intelligence failure from almost exactly 50 years ago, the Yom Kippur war. Inevitably, questions arise regarding the repercussions of the political upheaval caused by Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right government and its contentious “overhaul” of the judiciary.
However, the most significant failure is not one of intelligence or security but of politics. Less than a year ago, the UN Middle East envoy informed the Security Council that tensions were nearing a boiling point. Last year marked the highest levels of bloodshed in Israel, the West Bank, and Jerusalem since the end of the second intifada in 2005. A third intifada has been widely anticipated. Incursions by the Israel Defence Forces have surged, with this summer witnessing the largest operation in the West Bank in two decades.
Palestinians have endured decades of occupation, the steady erasure of the prospect of a viable future state due to settlements, and escalating violence by settlers, who have grown bolder due to a sense of impunity. The fifteen-year-long blockade has devastated Gaza’s economy, leaving half the population in poverty. A recent modest economic improvement does not address the political crisis exacerbated by a Palestinian leadership lacking both power and legitimacy. Above all, Mr. Netanyahu’s tenure has witnessed extensive settlement expansion, the empowerment of extreme nationalists and overt racists in key positions, and the promise of annexation.
Just over a week ago, President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, asserted that “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” The events of this weekend not only refute that assessment spectacularly but also underscore the consequences of U.S. disengagement. There is a risk of heightened violence in the West Bank and the potential for a broader conflict involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Sunday morning, an Egyptian police officer shot and killed two Israeli tourists in Alexandria. Hamas has not only disrupted the path to normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel but has also, at a tremendous human cost, highlighted that deals with Gulf states that sideline Palestinian concerns are not a solution. It is evident that the status quo before Saturday was neither sustainable nor manageable.
